Southeast Missouri St.

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	257.0
Current RPI:	257
Expected SOS:	279
Current SOS:	279
Current Record:	12-17
Expected Record:	12-17
Current Conf Record:	8-10
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-5
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	246
Expected OOC SOS:	262

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-17	257.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeast Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	96-95	L	0%
11-16	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	A	66-50	L	0%
11-21	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	N	74-59	W	100%
11-22	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	N	82-88	L	0%
11-26	North Carolina Central (279.0)	MEAC	H	70-77	L	0%
12-2	North Carolina Central (279.0)	MEAC	A	77-86	W	100%
12-6	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	H	91-87	W	100%
12-9	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	A	69-75	W	100%
12-16	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	A	89-71	L	0%
12-20	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	H	67-75	L	0%
12-22	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	A	78-48	L	0%
12-28	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	H	72-94	L	0%
12-31	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	H	77-65	W	100%
1-4	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	A	89-73	L	0%
1-6	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	A	76-71	L	0%
1-11	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	H	78-75	W	100%
1-13	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	H	86-91	L	0%
1-18	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	A	74-86	W	100%
1-20	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	A	74-86	W	100%
1-25	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	A	76-65	L	0%
1-27	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	A	78-60	L	0%
2-1	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	H	75-87	L	0%
2-3	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	H	81-96	L	0%
2-8	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	A	62-78	W	100%
2-10	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	A	77-81	W	100%
2-15	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	80-73	W	100%
2-17	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	79-74	W	100%
2-22	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	A	91-88	L	0%
2-24	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	H	66-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeast Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southeast Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southeast Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	26.31	26.31	43.36	43.36	-3.50	-3.50
Tennessee Martin	OVC	4.36	4.36	25.93	25.93	-2.10	-2.10
Austin Peay	OVC	4.32	4.32	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	4.32	4.32	37.04	37.04	-1.12	-1.12
Murray St.	OVC	4.31	4.31	81.48	81.48	2.72	2.72
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	4.27	4.27	32.14	32.14	-1.52	-1.52
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	4.15	4.15	25.93	25.93	-2.00	-2.00
Morehead St.	OVC	4.14	4.14	24.00	24.00	-2.15	-2.15
North Carolina Central	MEAC	3.54	3.54	51.72	51.72	0.12	0.12
Belmont	OVC	2.67	2.67	71.88	71.88	1.17	1.17
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.64	2.64	61.29	61.29	0.60	0.60
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.63	2.63	53.33	53.33	0.18	0.18
Tennessee St.	OVC	2.60	2.60	48.15	48.15	-0.10	-0.10
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.98	1.98	61.29	61.29	0.45	0.45
Evansville	MVC	1.97	1.97	48.28	48.28	-0.07	-0.07
Bradley	MVC	1.89	1.89	58.06	58.06	0.31	0.31
Saint Louis	A10	1.81	1.81	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
UMKC	WAC	1.81	1.81	28.57	28.57	-0.78	-0.78
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	1.78	1.78	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Kansas St.	B12	1.75	1.75	65.62	65.62	0.55	0.55
Montana St.	BSky	1.75	1.75	34.48	34.48	-0.54	-0.54
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.72	1.72	14.81	14.81	-1.21	-1.21
Marshall	CUSA	0.27	0.27	69.70	69.70	0.10	0.10
Illinois St.	MVC	0.25	0.25	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.22	0.22	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.22	0.22	84.38	84.38	0.15	0.15
IUPUI	Horz	0.21	0.21	32.14	32.14	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.19	0.19	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.19	0.19	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Lipscomb	ASun	0.17	0.17	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Illinois	B10	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.17	0.17	76.67	76.67	0.09	0.09
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.17	0.17	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Chicago St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	3.33	3.33	-0.13	-0.13
Central Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
George Mason	A10	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.14	0.14	16.67	16.67	-0.09	-0.09
Howard	MEAC	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
TCU	B12	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.12	0.12	24.24	24.24	-0.06	-0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	15.62	15.62	-0.08	-0.08
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.10	-0.10
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Butler	BE	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.09	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
USC Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
UTSA	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01